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Market Thoughts 09.19.21




Current Clients we will be sending out a separate email with the weekly Market Algo readings.


Corn Complex- Corn continued its technical bounce from the previous Friday’s WASDE report. Cash basis levels across many areas have taken nearly all the old crop premium out as harvest has begun in many areas across the cornbelt. We do continue to see strong basis levels for old and new in ND as empty pipelines and strong pull from Canada drive the bid for the moment. Early harvest reports out of Illinois appear to be a bit disappointing versus expectations with many of those acres being early harvested wind damage fields (220-230act vs 250-280exp). Iowa yields appear to be stronger than expected with only small yield samples so far in NE and IN. Producers believe later fields should be better. We had a poor week of export sales and inspections, but mostly due to continued export issues at the Gulf.


Soybean/Canola Complex- Beans a bit of the laggard on the week with announced cancellations of soybeans to China offset with a few more flash sales later in the week. It appears cancellation were due to Gulf issues as it relates to October shipments with new sales occurring out in the Nov/Dec timeframe. Bean exports and demand continue to bear watching as we have seen Brazil take Oct sales that traditionally would be US along with their longer than normal export season consuming most of the Sep needs in world export markets. The window for US exports will be much smaller and prices (basis/futures) will need to be to be competitive against South American new crop coming online in late Feb. StatsCan out for the week with yet another tightening of crop sizes for the canola crop much expected by the market but further emphasizing the need to ration demand in that crop.


Wheat Complex­- All complexes worked off recent lows during the week. With tighter balance sheets downside will be a bit limited until new crop production is available from the southern hemisphere in the next few months. High quality milling stocks will continue to be tight worldwide but US prices are limiting our bushels into the export market. US wheat will continue to serve as market of last resort for importers waiting until milling stocks in cheaper regions are more depleted. Basis will continue to do the work to draw bushels from the marketplace during fall harvest. KC hard wheat demand into export markets continue to be robust as it appears to be the cheap supplement for higher quality spring wheat into the mill markets both in the US and internationally.


Outside Markets- Equities and bonds markets were mixed on the week, with continued debt contagion worries due to potential bankruptcy of large Chinese property developer Evergrande. Most folks may have missed the story on the company but there are concerns their $300 billion in liabilities could cause knock on effects thru the Chinese and world economy. Will need to monitor the situation in days ahead. In addition, we have seen some key Chinese economic indicators begin to show significant slowing including steel production and electricity use. US equities also were disappointed with apparent failure of 3.5T spending package likely not passing.












This material should be construed as market commentary, observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any trading strategy, promotional element, or quality of service. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author.

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