Market Thoughts 11.22.21
***Reminder – January 12th, 2022 in Bismarck, or third annual “What Matters When You Market” client event***
We’ve mentioned this a couple times along the way but we are finally moving forward with phasing out weekly market commentary and merging it into our Lighthouse Labs Price Signals. While the last 300+ editions of market commentary contain some incredible highlights, it’s still simply no match for our Price Signals charts coupled with brief daily analysis. Now that the website is live, if you’re not a Lighthouse grain marketing client and want to access Price Signals/continue receiving market commentary in its new format, simply go the www.thelighthouselabs.com and follow the prompts to subscribe.
Lastly if you’re wondering are our Price Signals in fact useful, a few recent reminders of why math is better than English when it comes to market analysis:
11-9 Price signals morning of a report always an interesting one. Beans at outright buy levels and corn/wheat/canola all sharply off recent highs; indicating neutral/bullish report. This was a bullish report (or at least bullish response to it) and beans have since rallied nearly 100 cents from their pre-report lows
11-2 A couple things to note this morning – spring wheat now just under outright Sell Threshold level after last night’s algo update. Three previous times during this rally wheat has spiked above Sell Threshold and all three times featured an abrupt collapse in prices followed by a resumption of the uptrend. Looks like another sharply higher day in store and if so, will likely spike above the Sell Threshold. Spring wheat did in fact make a major high that day and proceeded to fall 90 cents over the next three sessions.
9-5 Lastly, the composite algo as well as all the individual algos are at their lowest levels since early July after falling sharply last week, and are hovering just above outright buy levels. Corn posted a seasonal low the next day and proceeded to rally 80 cents over the next two months.
5-9 Pretty strong signaling from our algos this week as all three new crop contracts are in Sell Signal territory as of Friday along with old crop corn and wheat having been in sell signal territory for the past week (only old crop beans remain just below sell levels). That Friday was in fact the high for nearby corn and beans.