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Market Thoughts 4.02.23

Updated: Apr 30

  • May corn gained 17’4 last week to close at 660’4. This makes now three straight weekly gains with that contract up over 54 cents since our Strong Buy Signal on March 10th. May beans added an incredible 77’2 cents to close at 1505’4. This was the largest weekly gain for beans since July 25th, right after beans made seasonal lows. May spring wheat added 38’2 to close at 895’6, having now rallied 84 cents since making a March 9th low (two days after Strong Buy Signal on our charts).

  • Recapping Friday’s report highlights:

o As much fun as it is to describe these things after they happen, it’s perhaps even more useful to have an idea beforehand. Once again our Price Signals were right on target ahead of a major USDA report:

(Pulled from Price Signals, our subscription software that keeps you ahead of the market)

o Back to the highlights, a few things to point out:

  • Corn’s combination of Stocks and Acres is mildly bearish on the surface as March 1st supplies were 46 mln bu lower than the average trade guess while 2023 acres were 1.12 mln higher. That suggests an additional ~150 mln bu of supplies.

  • Soybean data was outright bullish. March 1st supplies 57 million bushels lower while 2023 acres 750k lower than trade guesses translates to total supply of almost 100 mln bu, again very bullish.

  • All-wheat supplies were close to trade guesses while spring wheat acres were down 380k from expectations, a bullish 3.5% below expectations.

So, what happens now?

Click here to access the full analysis

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