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Market Thoughts 4.09.23

Updated: Apr 30, 2023

We had made the case last week for grains to stay steady/higher over the next month, noting various supportive short-term stories: Chinese corn purchases, Southwestern drought persisting, banking crisis fading, Stocks and Acres reports mostly bullish, and the prospect for planting delays; all with Managed Money massive recent sellers and out of position for a spring rally.

Add to it OPEC+ announcing major production cuts last Sunday night, causing energy prices to surge and trade higher all week. And despite all that, grains traded lower all four days. Corn dropped below its pre-Acres report level by Friday, which we suggested last week wouldn’t happen until much later this spring. So what’s going on?

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