Weekly Market Recap
Week of Oct 29th, 2021
Weekly Market Recap
Current Clients we will be sending out a separate email with the weekly Market Algo readings.
Corn Complex- Corn bounced nicely on the week with support coming from the wheat space. Corn seemed like a technical driven market action, with support coming from funds. Exports and inspections were good for the week, but not record. Corn seems be getting carryover fund support as it serves as proxy for the continued energy and food inflation story that many in the managed money complex are following. Funds did increase their long position by about 25k contracts this week. Ethanol margins have improved nicely in the last 30 days maximizing thoughts on current ethanol grind levels.
Soybean/Canola Complex- Oilseeds were drug higher with support from the wheat and corn complex. We continue to be concerned with the longer-term prospects of the US bean balance sheet and the lackluster exports as mentioned in past commentary. Our export pace both in sales and shipments continues to mount deficits that appear to be difficult to overcome and South American weather to this juncture as led to above average planting pace combined with ample moisture across most major growing regions. Argentina continues a bit drier than Brazil, but with moisture upcoming. Canola tested into new highs in the Jan contract this week. Prices have continued to ration demand, but it would appear we have not reached ultimate price highs for the moment.
Wheat Complex- All wheat complexes continued their climb into the stratosphere this week with Minnie leading the way. Minnie eclipsed the $10.35 resistance level likely on its way to test the $11.20 high from 2011. KC Dec nearly touched $8.00 levels not seen since 2013/14, likely on its way to test the $8.52 high from Apr of 2014. The Argentine and Australian crop will come online here within the next 60-90 days, but their larger crop sizes are already figured into the world balance sheets. Longer term Russian export tax and dryness there combined with a potential La Nina in the KC crop over the winter is giving support until the market can sort out what if any impacts this has to domestic and world balance sheets. We will need increased world wheat acreage combined with good yields to start rebuilding world wheat exporter stocks.
Outside Markets- Equities set record highs during the week, as dollars continue to chase returns worldwide. Energy backed off recent highs but have not seen a major correction. Natural gas still is feeling pressure from higher prices worldwide as many countries try to build supplies going into the heart of the heating season. Energy inflation story is likely not over and will lead to continued inflationary pressures on consumer prices.
World Carryout Charts
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